2021 Contract Awards Update
AMI analysts track the 151 ocean-based countries and report on those that have resources to buy, build, modernize, and maintain a navy or coast guard force. WNPR “country” and corresponding “project” reports give strategy and business development professionals the essential information to identify and pursue near term opportunities and future sales prospects. As you press forward with ongoing programs and reviewing your future strategy consider the following:
- In 2021, there were 25 projects expected to be awarded totaling 95 hulls with a value of US$27.17B.
- For 2022, there are 50 projects that are expected to be awarded totaling 316 hulls at a value of US$85.88B. Many of these projects were pushed into 2022 from 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. AMI is hopeful that these will indeed see an award in 2022 as the pandemic enters its 3rd year.
- The numbers remain relatively steady between 2023 through 2025 with 117 projects totaling 675 hulls valued at US$134.54B.
- Our long-range forecast indicates from 2026 to 2035, there are an anticipated 77 projects totaling 293 hulls valued at US$205.7B
The following programs received contract awards in 2021 as forecasted and are currently underway:
| 2021 Contract Awards | ||
| Country | Program | 20-Year Build |
| Iran | Negin Class Destroyer | 2 |
| Portugal | Viana do Castelo (NPO) Class OPV (Batch III) | 6 |
| Brazil | Alvaro Alberto Class Nuclear Powered Attack Submarine (SSN) | 1 |
| Taiwan | Submarine Rescue Ship (ASR) | 6 |
| Philippines | Shaldag Mk V Littoral Patrol Interdiction Craft (LPIC) (FAC) | 14 |
| Canada | CCG Offshore Oceanographic Science Vessel (OOSV) | 1 |
| Italy | Near Future Submarine (NFS) Type 212 (Todaro Batch III) | 4 |
| Morocco | Avante 1500 Offshore Patrol Vessel (OPV) | 2 |
| United Kingdom | Mk 11 Shallow Water Combat Submersible (SWCS) | 3 |
| Germany | Type 212CD Class Submarine | 2 |
| Israel | Shaldag Mk V Class Patrol Craft | 4 |
| Norway | Type 212CD Submarine | 4 |
| Bangladesh | Coast Guard Department of Fisheries (DOF) 13-Meter Fast Interceptor Boats (FIB) | 6 |
| United States | Pathfinder Class Hydrographic Survey Ship (T-AGS) | 1 |
| Indonesia | FREMM Class Frigate (Destroyer) | 6 |
| Germany | 424 Class Fleet Service Ship (AGI) | 3 |
| Ghana | Defender 38 Class Patrol Craft | 2 |
| Nigeria | Dearsan OPV 76 | 2 |
| Nigeria | OSV 115 Oceanographic Survey Vessel (AGOS) | 1 |
| Bangladesh | Coast Guard ARES 150 Patrol Boat | 4 |
Of the 25 programs estimated to have started in 2021, 20 began on schedule (80%). The 5 programs listed below have been delayed and are expected to be awarded in 2022 and beyond:
| 2021 Contract Delays | ||
| Country | Program | 20-Year Build |
| Germany | Type 707 Fleet Auxiliary Ship (AOE) | 2 |
| Lithuania | Pollution Response/Rescue Ship | 1 |
| United Kingdom | Combat Craft, Medium (CCM) Mk 1 | 6 |
| Ukraine | LAN (Project 58260) Fast Attack Craft (FAC) | 8 |
| Romania | Gowind 2500 Frigate (Corvette Program) | 4 |
The five-year (2023-2027) window is the “sweet spot” in terms of planning and influencing the customer and winning a particular contract award. During this period, potential opportunities by ship type and total hull count include aircraft carriers (2), submarines (56), destroyers (21), frigates/corvettes (105), OPVs (73), amphibious vessels (139), auxiliaries (86), patrol vessels (180), MCMV (60), and unmanned (28).
This long-range forecast provides insight into what contract awards are coming for early strategic planning, establishing in-country contacts, and devising a plan to target contract awards for the best probability of winning. Future prospects afford the opportunity to open a dialog with in-country representatives or key personalities within government, the sea service, or domestic companies/shipbuilders to form partnerships and influence decision makers to purchase your ship design or equipment for a given new construction program.