Asia-Pacific Submarine Market Perspectives Part II
In May’s Hot News, we took a look at the submarine market in the Asia-Pacific (A-P) region as a whole. This month we dive down into specific program and country trends.
Most of the new submarine programs in the A-P region are found in countries that are seeking to improve already-capable submarine forces, notably: China, India, Australia, Japan and South Korea.
Other programs, such as those in Taiwan, and planned nuclear submarine acquisitions in South Korea and Pakistan, represent “step-jumps” in existing submarine forces. We anticipate this will drive corresponding counter investments in new anti-submarine warfare (ASW) submarines and surface ships among those countries’ neighbors and rivals.
As this chart shows, conventionally powered submarines continue to lead the A-P market, making up some 82% of future hulls that AMI projects will be acquired by regional navies over the next two decades.
However, some countries are also expanding nuclear submarine programs, despite their expense. These nuclear programs in four A-P countries–China, India, South Korea and Pakistan–represent 35% of projected spending, while making up on 18% of future hulls.
| Conventional | Nuclear | |
| Value US$B | 52.52 | 28.2 |
| Value % | 65% | 35% |
| Number | 94 | 21 |
| Number % | 82% | 18% |
While much attention is currently paid to Chinese submarine force expansion, in reality India claims top place among planned submarine spending in the next 20 years. India’s two nuclear and two conventionally powered programs represent almost US$31B in planned spending, nearly 40% of the regional total.
South Korea and Japan’s forecasted 20-year spending on new subs also exceeds AMI’s projection for China. This should be caveated by acknowledging the true value of Chinese defense spending on new platforms like submarines is very hard to estimate. Further, Korea’s large future submarine budget is weighed heavily by a nuclear submarine program that may not be realized at its current scope.
Summing up, the submarine market in the Asia-Pacific region is a highly visible and active target, one we continue to track closely for a broad number of interested customers.