In this month’s issue we report on the recent Canadian contract to sustain and modernize its Phalanx Close-In Weapons System (CIWS). This is one of several contracts awarded in the past year for similar systems, underscoring the importance of ship defense against increasing lethal missile threats.
It’s hard to believe the first CIWS systems were fielded 40 years ago. Systems like the Phalanx and Thales (then Signaal) Goalkeeper 30mm CIWS defended surface ships against then-new missile threats like the Soviet P15 Termit or “Styx” (SS-N-2) anti-ship missiles.
The years since have only increased the peril to surface ships, whether operating in peacetime environments or combat zones. Naval ships continue to be lost or damaged from traditional weapons such as mines (1990-91 Gulf War, USS Tripoli and USS Princeton), bombs (4 Royal Navy ships lost in the Falklands), and torpedoes (INS Kukri, ARA Admiral Belgrano, ROKS Choenan) as well as asymmetric tactics such as the use of small explosive-laden boats by terrorists (USS Cole). Even first-generation Styx anti-ship missiles continue to prey on naval ships, as witnessed by the October 2016 missile attack on the HSV-2 Swift, then contracted to the UAE.
Yet the anti-ship missile is still considered by most navies as the most likely and dangerous threat to naval surface ships, today and in the future. This conclusion is supported by the accelerating technological development and increasing global proliferation of anti-ship missiles. They are becoming faster, operating at longer ranges and equipped with sensors and guidance systems increasingly hard to defeat.
AMI’s naval market assessment tools, the Existing Ships and Worldwide Naval Projections databases, once again combine to help scope the future CIWS market’s modernization and new build– in actionable detail.
The Raytheon Phalanx remains the most common CIWS system in service with navies around the world. AMI’s Existing Ships Database identifies 411 ships equipped with Phalanx CIWS systems, of which 344 are now in service, with the remainder in various states of fitting out. Russian AK-630 systems rank second, equipping some 230 ships. Thales Goalkeeper is found on 42 ships and the Rheinmetall Millennium Gun is listed as equipping 14 ships.
Considering that AMI tracks roughly 12,000 ships now active or building among sea services world-wide, the Phalanx can be seen as a “high value low density” resource in most fleets, equipping combatants, large amphibious ships and aircraft carriers.
Looking ahead to AMI’s forecast of future naval ships to be built in next 20 years, the number of gun-based CIWS that will be acquired for new naval ships over the next 20 years is higher than those for short range AAW missile systems–by some 20%. Clearly short range AAW missiles are not replacing gun based systems, but rather complementing them, as most ships will mount both systems in a layered defense capability.
Second, the market for new gun-based CIWS installations is robust, with over 1,000 forecasted to be acquired over the 20-year period. Coupled with modernization of existing systems such as Phalanx, Goalkeeper, and Russian and Chinese equivalents, remain a core element of naval ship self-defense.
In numbers, AMI tracks 568 programs worldwide that will produce just under 2,900 naval ships, craft and submarines through 2037. Of those, 110 programs will produce some 532 ships mounting short range AAW missiles. 100 programs will produce 698 ships equipped with between 1 and 3 CIWS installations each.
The advent (some would say return) of near-peer competition among the world’s most capable navies, and the accelerating development of anti-ship missile technologies, will also continue to drive CIWS demand.