Regular readers of Hot News know that AMI periodically revisits our detailed future ship construction data found in our Worldwide Naval Projections Report (WNPR) by market subsegments and by regions.  Another such review on the frigate segment is timely to follow up on last month’s editorial on how the Ukraine War might affect European navies. 

Frigates are among the most capable surface ships in many navies.  The naval aspects of the Ukraine conflict to date are expected to reemphasize the importance of high-end naval platforms – notably frigates – that combine offensive potential (anti-ship and land attack) and capability to defend against hostile aircraft and missiles.

The chart below summarizes forecasted frigate programs worldwide through 2042.  These statistics combine both programs now building, and those AMI forecasts will be started in the next two decades.

Region	Asia & Australia	South America / Caribbean	MENA	NATO & Europe	Russia	USA	Global Total or Avg (USD million)
Total Programs	20	6	8	17	4	3	58
Total Countries	15	6	6	12	1	1	41
Total Ships	161	26	26	76	32	34	355
Average Size	4272	3188	3225	4306	4109	4460	3926
Total Spend (US$M)	66869	10530	15061	40674	13610	32820	179564
Avg Spend/Hull	415	405	579	535	425	965	554

Conclusions drawn from the graph follow:

• The slow but steady shift toward the Asia Pacific in new platform spending on all naval ship and submarine types is magnified when it comes to frigates.  AMI forecasts the region will spend almost the same as the US and Europe on new frigates and will acquire almost twice as many new hulls for that money.  New construction frigate programs in China, India, and Japan make up a large part of the differences between the regions.

• Any post-Ukraine boost to naval procurements in Europe will have limited near-term effect on local new frigate construction.  European navies are constrained in their ability to rapidly increase complex surface combatant acquisitions due to cutbacks in naval infrastructure (shipyards, systems suppliers, labor forces) over the past three decades. 

• In terms of frigate designs, most regions of the world continue to acquire ships that are 4,000-4,500 tons.  The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and South America / Caribbean regions prefer smaller designs (around 3,000 tons), consistent with their narrower operating environments and requirements.

• Wide variations in building costs (labor) and costs of systems fitted to new frigates account for the significant regional differences in per hull average acquisition costs.  MENA countries tend to spend more on smaller hulls, NATO per hull costs reflect more complex and expensive systems, and the Asia-Pacific acquisitions costs are skewed by the true cost of China’s expanding frigate fleet.

AMI’s market intelligence products are designed first to serve the interests of our customers.  These tend to be concentrated on near and mid-term opportunities and competitions.  However, as highlighted above, the depth and detail of our market data also enables strategic trend analysis, which is also key to competitive positioning in the industry.