This month’s newsletter reports on two amphibious ship developments of the retirement of the US Navy’s (USN) USS Ponce after 46 years of service, and the possible decommissioning and availability of the Royal Navy (RN) HMS Ocean, HMS Albion, and HMS Bulwark expeditionary lift platforms. A closer look at how these seemingly separate market events connect in AMI reporting highlights why amphibious ships continue to be highly sought after in the used ship naval market. Market interest in these types of ships centers on three related characteristics of “amphibs:” durability, lift capacity and flexibility.
From AMI’s perspective, the naval market is increasingly driven by two factors that help drive the continuing demand: accelerating technological change and constrained budgets for many (I would venture to say most) sea services around the world. These factors, mapped against amphibious ships durability, lift capacity and flexibility, make for a great market match.
Amphibious ships, by the very nature of their mission–heavy lift, movement of forces and equipment to and from shore–and the multiple domains in which they operate (surface and air), mean they must be built to last. Ponce’s 46 years of service are not exceptional in this regard consider the Royal Australian Navy’s (RAN) Balikpapan Heavy Landing Craft laid down in the early 70’s that have recently been transferred to the Philippines.
Force projection over the shore, subsequent logistics lift and support, and the peacetime requirements of humanitarian and disaster relief also drive amphibious ships to be built with large and flexible cargo carrying and movement capabilities. The well decks, flight decks, cranes, ramps and other design elements optimized for moving people and gear make amphib ships exceptionally suitable for future modification to accommodate new missions hardly envisioned when the ships were first designed or built, such as hosting unmanned systems or new directed energy weapons. Ponce’s history illustrates this from “straight stick” amphibious dock ship to “Afloat Forward Staging Base, Interim” to platform for at-sea testing of laser weapons. This is quite a return on investment for what might be seem to be (and therefore perhaps undervalued as) a simple “naval truck.”
Looking at the chart below, it is clear that navies around the world recognize the value of amphibious ships and craft spend accordingly. Amphibious platforms represent some 11% of all types of ships in the world’s fleets, second only to auxiliaries and patrol vessels as components of today’s sea services. This is especially true in the Asia-Pacific region, where geography, history and environment combine to place a premium on the flexible logistic and force projection elements of amphibious forces. The region represents about one third of all amphibious ships and craft in service worldwide.
And while service lives of 40 or 50 years can be expected from some types of amphibious ships like the Ponce or the Balikpapan class, they will still need replacing eventually. If even 2-3 percent of the global inventory of 1300+ amphibious ships comes out of service every year, that still represents 30-40 ships and craft that are being retired. AMI’s forecast for new construction amphibious ships and craft over the next 20 years projects just fewer than 20 of these types being built a year, less than half the replacement rate.
That replacement rate gap represents a strong market opportunity for used amphib ships and the countries taking these types of vessels out of service and offering them for transfer. And it represents a market opportunity for firms that can offer refit and modernization (equipment and services) for the “L” class ships which other nations are clamoring to acquire for their own amphib fleets.
Therefore Ocean, Bulwark and Albion, the oldest of which has less than 20 years of service life, are expected to be especially hot commodities. They represent an excellent opportunity for countries like Brazil Chile and Turkey, all said to be interested in acquiring these ships to fill gaps in their own force structure, even as they pursue ambitious new construction plans of their own, such as the Turkish Anadolu class LPD. And with 20-30 years of service life remaining, they will look to be a great bargain for some navies.
We expect, and will continue to track, high market interest in other amphibious ships and craft that come on the ship transfer market in coming years.
Existing Naval Market
(Ships Currently in Navy or Coast Guard service)
- Aircraft Carrier
- Amphibious
- Auxiliary
- Corvette
- Cruiser
- Destroyer
- FAC
- Frigate
- MCMV
- OPV
- Patrol Craft
- Submarine
- Totals
Asia & Australia
- 3
- 450
- 319
- 149
- 2
- 89
- 393
- 169
- 170
- 185
- 1968
- 160
- 4057
Caribbean & Latin America
- 1
- 106
- 134
- 29
- 1
- 31
- 45
- 15
- 57
- 1038
- 26
- 1483
Middle East & North Africa
- 137
- 71
- 50
- 2
- 218
- 24
- 30
- 27
- 861
- 42
- 1462
NATO
- 2
- 231
- 372
- 50
- 19
- 98
- 127
- 202
- 90
- 1000
- 86
- 2277
Non-NATO Europe
- 124
- 55
- 8
- 22
- 4
- 46
- 15
- 162
- 5
- 441
Russia
- 1
- 55
- 260
- 28
- 4
- 14
- 110
- 17
- 42
- 39
- 232
- 64
- 866
Sub Saharan Africa
- 30
- 13
- 1
- 33
- 7
- 7
- 27
- 388
- 3
- 509
USA
- 11
- 203
- 147
- 22
- 67
- 19
- 11
- 27
- 188
- 69
- 764
Totals
- 18
- 1336
- 1371
- 315
- 28
- 192
- 905
- 412
- 523
- 467
- 5837
- 455
- 11859