This month AMI continues our review of naval market segments with a look at patrol and fast attack craft (FAC). These small displacement types represent a very small share (1%) of global naval spending on new platforms, but are numerous and tend to be used heavily, resulting in shorter lives and more frequent replacement. The unique aspects of these market segments contribute to opportunities for refit, repair and replacement on timelines different than those of larger displacement ships.
In many navies, especially those with smaller force structures and/or unique operating environments such as extensive riverine and archipelagic regions, these smaller craft make important contributions to their nation’s maritime power beyond their size and relatively lower acquisition costs.
The chart below provides a recent snapshot of AMI analysis of these two market segments, highlighting just how comparatively little is spent on these types as a share of overall new ship procurement. Both types have seen declines in the AMI 20-year forecast in 2022 compared to 2017, especially with regard to patrol craft (PC). Yet even with those declines, the small market share of total new construction spending has not moved much—PC and FAC each represent about 1% of total new ship acquisition outlays down from 3% combined in 2017.
To put this is perspective, the US$21.7B in total projected new FAC and PC buys through 2042 is about the same as that forecasted for new mine warfare vessels over the same period (AMI reviewed that segment in May’s edition of Hot News).
| Vessel Type | 2022 20-Year Forecasted Value US$B | 2017 20-Year Forecasted Value US$B | Change ($) | Change (%) | 2022 Market Share (%) | 2017 Market Share (%) | Change (%) |
| FAC | 9.5 | 10.1 | -0.6 | -5.90% | 0.80% | 1.00% | -0.20% |
| Patrol Craft | 12.2 | 18.6 | -6.4 | -34.40% | 1.00% | 1.90% | -0.80% |
Unmanned surface vessel solutions for patrol and high speed ship attack missions are appearing in operational fleets, but USVs have not yet diverted significant funds away from manned small craft in these segments. We expect unmanned, as a share of all new FAC and PC acquisitions, to continue to grow over the next decade.
While the spending on these types of platforms is relatively small, most nations around the world continue to pursue FAC and especially PC programs. A review of FAC and PC new construction programs globally in the chart below shows that over 50 countries have one or more new patrol craft acquisitions either planned or building now, about three times the number of countries (17) with new FAC programs buildings or planned.
The number of new FAC and PC/PV hulls forecast for the next 20 years totals over 1,000, or about 1/3 of all new sea service hulls of every type projected to be built in the next two decades. In terms of size and cost, FAC tend to be about twice as large and 3.5 times more expensive as PCs, with both differences explained by the missions and additional weapons fits (torpedoes or more commonly missiles) on FAC.
| Global Count/Average | FAC | PC |
| Projects | 23 | 80 |
| Countries | 17 | 54 |
| Hulls | 227 | 756 |
| Avg size (FLD) | 487 | 225 |
| Avg $/Hull (USD M) | $68.50 | $17.46 |
As the market share in funding for these types remains relatively small, the numbers of PCs and FAC expected to be built in the coming 20 years is sizable. This means we will continue to invest in analysis time and expertise to track these programs in extensive detail not found from other offerors in the naval research market.